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7. Putin’s increasingly ungovernable Russia.A sick and politically enfeebled Putin is no longer able to play different powerclans off against each other, making the country increasinglyungovernable while the petro-economy slows down. This may prompt areturn to defensive/aggressive posturing to its south and west (it willkeep quiet over China), for instance through greater involvement in theFormer Soviet Union (meddling in Ukraine and Georgia), and diplomaticmuscle flexing in Syria and with the US and NATO over missile defenceand the Magnitski list. However, underlying this is the realisation thatRussia desperately needs the West and can’t afford to push too hard indifficult times.
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