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Создан: 21.05.2008
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Life is not a choice, Life is a chance

А у нас — весна!..

Вторник, 10 Марта 2015 г. 12:47 + в цитатник
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..Вовсю.



Это фотография недельной давности.


Я сейчас нахожусь: Portland, OR, USA
Мой настрой: What is it?
Я слушаю: Nothing

LIci WP

Взгляд на Украину. На войну…

Воскресенье, 08 Марта 2015 г. 14:35 + в цитатник
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Говорят, что снято итальянцами. Правда, все говорящие на английском, говорят с акцентом&





Но, кем бы оно не было снято, сделано хорошо.


Я сейчас нахожусь: Portland, OR, USA
Мой настрой: What is it?
Я слушаю: Nothing

LIci WP

У нас опять стреляют…

Вторник, 03 Марта 2015 г. 12:07 + в цитатник
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&На улице&


PORTLAND, Ore.  A man was shot and killed in North Portland Monday and homicide detectives were leading the investigation.


Officers responded to a report of a shooting just after 2:30 p.m., at North Blandena Street and Commercial Avenue. They arrived to find a man suffering from at least one gunshot wound, according to the Portland Police Bureau.


The victim died at the scene. He was later identified as 29-year-old Marquis Delon Chaney.

Police said Chaney lived in the neighborhood. An autopsy was planned for Tuesday.


Investigators said limited information indicated that the suspect or suspects left the area after the shooting.


Witnesses told KGW they heard 4 to 5 gunshots and saw a man running from the scene who appeared to be around 25 years old, or younger.


Homicide detectives, criminalists from the Forensic Evidence Division and the Medical Examiner were helping with the investigation.


Just two days earlier, a man was shot and wounded in a nearby area of North Portland. He later died at the hospital and homicide detectives continue to investigate.


Police have not said if they think the two shootings may be related.


Отсюда.


Я сейчас нахожусь: Portland, OR, USA
Мой настрой: What is it?
Я слушаю: Nothing

LIci WP

У нашего бывшего губернатора началась веселая жизнь…

Воскресенье, 01 Марта 2015 г. 09:32 + в цитатник
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За ним и за его партнершей по бизнесу внимательно наблюдают.


SALEM, Ore. (AP) – Workers at a Central Oregon landfill became suspicious when former Gov. John Kitzhaber and his fianc'ee, Cylvia Hayes, showed up to dump some trash last week.


The suspicious workers called authorities after the first couple paid a visit last week.


Timm Schimke of the Deschutes County solid waste department tells The Bulletin that sheriff’s deputies poked through the couple’s trash for about an hour. He says it appeared they dumped old campaign signs and a mattress or box spring.


Schimke says the couple arrived in two vehicles and stayed for two or three minutes.


He told KOIN 6 News, “It looked like someone was cleaning out their garage to me. There was a mattress and a box spring. It didn’t look nefarious. It was people dumping garbage.”


Отсюда.


Избавляется от чего-то?


Я сейчас нахожусь: Portland, OR, USA
Мой настрой: What is it?
Я слушаю: Nothing

LIci WP

От злоупотреблений к банальному воровству…

Четверг, 26 Февраля 2015 г. 14:21 + в цитатник
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Нашему, теперь уже экс-губернатору сильно не повезло. Не знаю, под какую такую руку он попал, но от сообщений на прошлой неделе о том, что им заняллось ФБР, сегодня появились сообщения о том, что им теперь занялись и налоговые органы.


А с его, теперь уже женой, все просто. Появились сообщения о том, что ее обвиняют в& воровстве.


Воровала она у благотворителей&


BEND, Ore. — Cylvia Hayes faced theft allegations involving a Central Oregon charity, according to police reports obtained by KGW.


Records show the police report was referred to the Oregon Attorney Generals Charitable Activities Section more than a decade ago, but never prosecuted.


Heres somebody who pretends to be real sweet and needs your help and then just takes your money, said Bend business owner Fred Swisher.


Swisher reported the alleged theft case to Bend Police on June 27, 2001. KGW found the incident through a public records request. Most of the documents have been destroyed because the case is so old. The police narrative reads, Hayes is alleged to have defrauded Swisher.


Swisher, who owns Bend Pine Nursery, remembers Cylvia Hayes as charming as she fundraised for an environmental charity in Central Oregon. He cant recall the name of the organization.


She was a little vague on where the funds would go, and how theyd help anybody and what they would be applied to, said Swisher.


Initially, Hayes wanted Swisher to contribute by writing a check. But instead, the Bend landscaper agreed to consign one-thousand ponderosa pine trees. They agreed to split the profits. Half would go to him. Hayes would get the other half for her charity.


She just kept it all, said Swisher. In 25 years now, theres never been a bad check, never been a theft, except for her.


The police report estimates the loss at $300. Bend Police referred to the A.Gs Charitable Activity Section. When contacted by phone, the former Oregon Department of Justice investigator assigned to the case said he didnt recall why it was dismissed in 2001.


Отсюда.


Я сейчас нахожусь: Portland, OR, USA
Мой настрой: What is it?
Я слушаю: Nothing

LIci WP

Кому нужна правда?..

Понедельник, 23 Февраля 2015 г. 12:11 + в цитатник
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Старое интервью странного западного журналиста. Наверняка, ведь, очень хорошо знает западные СМИ.


&Другой пример. Когда я был в Луганске, «Би-Би-Си» писала, что Луганск захватили украинские войска. А я сам видел, что их нет. Они просто пресс-релизы Киева переписали! Для журналиста самое главное — быть на месте. У меня самого теперь нет желания работать с «Би-би-си». В Великобритании любой корреспондент мечтает работать в «Би-би-си», это наше самое главное СМИ. Но там готовы общаться, только когда это подходит для их точки зрения. Из-за этого я и решил работать с русскими каналами: им больше нужна правда.


Полностью  здесь.


Я сейчас нахожусь: Portland, OR, USA
Мой настрой: What is it?
Я слушаю: Nothing

LIci WP

The Independent про Украину…

Четверг, 19 Февраля 2015 г. 15:51 + в цитатник
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Статья не очень большая&


Ukrainian forces are retreating from a key town where rebels appear to have emerged victorious after claiming that hundreds of government soldiers had surrendered or been captured.


President Petro Poroshenko declared that his forces were carrying out a “planned and organised” departure from the town of Debaltseve, which has been under siege by separatists for weeks and saw fierce battles yesterday despite a ceasefire declared on Sunday.


Speaking from a snowy airfield in Kiev before leaving for the frontlines, Mr Poroshenko praised Ukrainian forces, claiming they fulfilled their duty in defending the town and had shown the world “the true face of the bandits and separatists who are supported by Russia.”


About 80 per cent of Ukrainian forces had been withdrawn from Debaltseve with their weapons and another two columns were expected to leave today.

Vladimir Putin had earlier told Ukraine it should let its soldiers lay down their weapons and flee battles against rebels “to save their own lives”.


Separatists claimed hundreds of soldiers had already surrendered or been captured, although the numbers could not be confirmed.


The Russian President, who has denied persistent allegations that his government is arming the separatists, seemed to back the rebels in the battle for Debaltseve.

“I hope that the responsible figures in the Ukrainian leadership will not hinder soldiers in the Ukrainian army from putting down their weapons,” he said.


“If they arent capable of taking that decision themselves and giving that order, then (I hope) that they won’t prosecute people who want to save their lives and the lives of others.”


He added that he hoped the rebels would allow the Ukrainians to return to their families, once they had surrendered Debaltseve.

Thousands of Ukrainian troops were surrounded yesterday in the strategic railway hub as rebels seized parts of the town.


Gun battles were fought from street to street as mortar fire and rockets rained down on both sides, causing a huge explosion when a gas pipeline was hit.


Reuters journalists near the snowy frontline said artillery rounds were rocking Debaltseve every five seconds yesterday and black smoke was rising skywards as Grad rockets pounded the town.


It was unclear how many civilians are still in the besieged town but the UN expressed its concerns for “a few thousand” people believed to be hiding in cellars, trapped.


Rebels claim the ceasefire announced last week does not apply to Debaltseve, which lies between their two main strongholds of Donetsk and Luhansk, as they have already taken “80 per cent” of it and call it “internal territory” – a claim Ukraine denies.

Eduard Basurin, a rebel leader, said negotiations were under way for 5,000 Ukrainian troops to surrender.


“Hundreds” of government soldiers had been captured and would eventually be released to their families, he claimed. Ukraine admitted its troops had been taken but denied the number was so great.


Despite Mr Putins public call for surrender, Russia sponsored a resolution adopted by the UN Security Council that called on all sides to implement the peace plan, expressing ”grave concern“ at the violence.

Even while supporting the resolution on Tuesday, the US and other council members spoke with scorn.


American Ambassador Samantha Power called Russias drafting of the resolution ironic, to say the least given it was ”backing an all-out assault“ in Ukraine.


The Russian Ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, responded by calling the comments “offensive.”


Hopes that the deal reached last Thursday would end a conflict that has killed more than 5,600 people so far were always slim after a rebel advance in January left a previous ceasefire in tatters.

But EU foreign policy chief Francesca Mogherini refused to concede defeat, acknowledging the battles were “not encouraging” but adding: “As long as there is a signed deal to which the parties still refer as something that needs to be implemented, I will not say that there is a failure.


The Ukrainian government and Nato say the rebel assault on Debaltseve is being reinforced by Russian tanks, artillery and soldiers, while Moscow denies any involvement in the battle for the region termed Novorossiya (New Russia) by Mr Putin and separatists.


American officials said they were gravely concerned by the fighting and were monitoring reports of a new influx of Russian military equipment heading to the area.


The US has been considering sending weapons to back Kiev, although the State Department said on Tuesday that getting into a proxy war with Russia was not in the interests of Ukraine or the world.


Mr Putin said he already believed weapons were being sent to the government army.


Отсюда.


Кровь. Человеческие жизни&


Я сейчас нахожусь: Portland, OR, USA
Мой настрой: What is it?
Я слушаю: Nothing

LIci WP

Письмо Китцхабера об отставке…

Среда, 18 Февраля 2015 г. 04:26 + в цитатник
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Достаточно любопытный документ&


I am announcing today that I will resign as Governor of the State of Oregon.


It is not in my nature to walk away from a job I have undertaken – it is to stand and fight for the cause. For that reason I apologize to all those people who gave of their faith, time, energy and resources to elect me to a fourth term last year and who have supported me over the past three decades. I promise you that I will continue to pursue our shared goals and our common cause in another venue.


I must also say that it is deeply troubling to me to realize that we have come to a place in the history of this great state of ours where a person can be charged, tried, convicted and sentenced by the media with no due process and no independent verification of the allegations involved. But even more troubling – and on a very personal level as someone who has given 35 years of public service to Oregon – is that so many of my former allies in common cause have been willing to simply accept this judgment at its face value.


It is something that is hard for me to comprehend – something we might expect in Washington, D.C. but surely not in Oregon. I do not know what it means for our shared future but I do know that it is seriously undermining civic engagement in this state and the quality of the public discourse that once made Oregon stand out from the pack.


Nonetheless, I understand that I have become a liability to the very institutions and policies to which I have dedicated my career and, indeed, my entire adult life. As a former presiding officer I fully understand the reasons for which I have been asked to resign. I wish Speaker Kotek and President Courtney and their colleagues on both sides of the aisle success in this legislative session and beyond. And I hope that they are truly committed to carrying forward the spirit of bipartisanship and collaboration that has marked the last four years in Oregon.


In 1968 I was inspired to commit my life to public service by the last campaign of Robert Kennedy. Forty-one years ago I started work as an emergency room doctor in Roseburg with a goal to make life better for those in my care. Ever since then, I have sought to keep that focus by trying to make things better for the people and the communities of this state that I love. I have had the extraordinary privilege of pursuing that work as a State Representative, State Senator, Senate President and as your Governor.


Over those years, I have had the honor to be a part of some remarkable achievements.


• We responded to the worst recession and financial crisis since the Great Depression by rebuilding an Oregon economy that has added jobs and vitality in many regions of our state. And, unlike many other parts of our nation, we did it together with cooperation and respect for Oregon and for each other.


• We successfully defended Oregons spectacular natural heritage of clean water, clean air, forests, farmland and special places. We created the Oregon Plan for Salmon and Watersheds and nearly 90 watershed councils.


• We have also found ways to support our rural communities and to create jobs in our natural resources industries while enhancing the environment.


• When forces of intolerance sought to divide us we stood up for the principal that every Oregonian deserves respect and basic rights – including the right to choose and the right to marry the person we love.


• And I am proud that Oregon has not invoked the death penalty during my last four years on the watch.


• We have stood by our working men and women steadfastly supporting collective bargaining and the right to form a union.


• We have transformed our health care system, improving access and quality while lowering costs through our new Coordinated Care Organizations. Tonight over 95 percent of Oregonians will go to bed knowing that they have health insurance coverage. We did that together.


• In a three-day special session we reformed our public pension system, provided tax relief to small businesses and raised new revenue for mental health and for public education  the foundation of our future.


• We have passionately pursued the goal of equity and opportunity – especially for those Oregonians who have been left behind: communities of color, English language learners and those in poverty, those in the rural parts of our state, the very young and the very old.


• We have laid the groundwork for eliminating the achievement gap and ensuring that over 90 percent of our children could be reading at level in 3rd grade within five years.


• And we are poised to reach agreements that will resolve the century-old water crisis in the Klamath Basin and expand irrigated agriculture in the Umatilla.


As important as what we have accomplished – how we have accomplished it is perhaps even more important. We have had a great tradition of overcoming partisan differences in this state and doing what is right for Oregon. That tradition had faltered, but over the past four years we have rebuilt a functional political center, reaching across party lines to do difficult, important things by reducing polarization and building community to help right the ship and chart a better course for our future.


I ran for a fourth term as your governor to continue that progress. But the questions that have been raised about my administration – specifically allegations against me concerning the work done by my fianc


Вспоминая уходящего Губернатора…

Среда, 18 Февраля 2015 г. 04:16 + в цитатник
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И то, что он сделал для Орегона&


SALEM, Ore.  Although John Kitzhaber is currently embroiled in ethics and criminal investigations surrounding his work with his fiancee, Cylvia Hayes, he leaves behind a lasting legacy that includes decades of public service and contributions that transformed the state.


Prior to becoming governor in 1994, Kitzhaber paid his political dues in the house and senate before being elected to the states highest office.


Following his work as an emergency room doctor, Kitzhaber was elected to the Oregon House in 1978, then the Oregon Senate in 1980. He served three terms in the senate, eventually becoming Senate President.

His first term as governor was in 1994. He was since elected in 1998, 2010 and 2014.


Kitzhaber was one of the first advocates for government-run health care. He pushed the plan on the national stage  including an appearance on the Today Show in 1988.

He also pushed for health care reform, joining President Clinton at the White House in 1994, just after he announced he was running for governor.

Kitzhaber was chief author of the states government-funded health care plan, known as the Oregon Health Plan. It brought health care to the poor and became a model for other states, which he mentioned in his resignation speech.


We have transformed our health care system, improving access and quality while lowering costs through our new coordinated care organizations,  said Kitzhaber. Tonight over 95 percent of Oregonians will go to bed knowing they have health insurance coverage.


Recently, the governor took serious heat for the botched Cover Oregon website.


Kitzhaber also made headlines when he issued a reprieve for a convicted murderer scheduled to die by lethal injection, saying he wouldnt allow the death penalty to be carried out in the state while he was governor.


Governor Kitzhaber focused on education, introducing plans to help at-risk children and their families.


Kitzhaber has been a vocal defender of the environment. Perhaps his biggest environmental achievement was the Oregon plan for salmon and watersheds, which is helping to restore threatened salmon species.


Kitzhaber was known as much for the bills he did not pass as the ones he did.


As governor, Kitzhaber was never afraid to veto bills. During his first two terms, he got the nickname Dr. No for his record-setting 202 vetoes. At the end of his second term, he said that partisanship was making the state ungovernable.


Полностью  здесь.


Я сейчас нахожусь: Portland, OR, USA
Мой настрой: What is it?
Я слушаю: Nothing

LIci WP

Немного вокала…

Вторник, 17 Февраля 2015 г. 15:10 + в цитатник
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Мне понравилось.





Я сейчас нахожусь: Portland, OR, USA
Мой настрой: What is it?
Я слушаю: Nothing

LIci WP

Обнаружен с…клад…

Вторник, 17 Февраля 2015 г. 14:24 + в цитатник
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Никак не мог пропустить это& Нашел у Анатолия Шария,  здесь.





Когда смотрел, очень смеялся.


А потом подумал, вот интересно, кто-то и правда поверит в эту туфту?


Я сейчас нахожусь: Portland, OR, USA
Мой настрой: What is it?
Я слушаю: Nothing

LIci WP

Неплохая кампания…

Суббота, 14 Февраля 2015 г. 15:38 + в цитатник
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Вдогонку к новости о нашем погоревшем Губернаторе, подумалось:


Нет ничего нового под Солнцем, сказал когда-то Царь Соломон, ака Экклезиаст.


Адам, Соломон, Китцхабер& Список очень неполный и, думаю, будет продолжаться, пока существует Человечество.


Я сейчас нахожусь: Portland, OR, USA
Мой настрой: What is it?
Я слушаю: Nothing

LIci WP

О влиянии женщин на хозяев больших офисов, или… от плохого к худшему…

Суббота, 14 Февраля 2015 г. 13:56 + в цитатник
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..Не успела в Орегоне отгреметь новость об отставке Губернатора, как всех потрясла новость о том, что Федеральные органы занялись вплотную нашим, теперь уже бывшим Губернатором и его бывшей невестой, а сейчас  женой.


PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN 6) — The United States Department of Justice issued subpoenas Friday for records involving Governor Kitzhaber and First Lady Cylvia Hayes.


Subpoenas were also issued to approximately a dozen agencies – including the governor’s office and at least 14 other people, sources told KOIN 6 News.


The subpoenas seek information related to contracts and payments Hayes received over the past four years.


Sources who spoke under a promise of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak about the federal investigation told KOIN 6 News investigators believe Hayes received payments that she did not report to the state or on her taxes.


They are trying to determine if she did work for outside companies without reporting that she was doing work for those companies.


In addition to contracts, the feds are seeking email, phone logs, documents and visitors logs involving Hayes and nearly a dozen businesses and advocacy groups that Hayes had contact with, according to these sources.


US. Department of Justice


S. Amanda Marshall


United States Attorney


District of Oregon


1000 SW Third Avenue, Suite 600 (503) 72 7?1 000

Portland, OR 97204?2902 Fax (5 03 471-5563


February 12, 2015


State of Oregon  Department of Administrative Services

155 Cottage St NE, U20


Salem, OR 97301?3972


Attn: Custodian of Records


Re: District of Oregon, Portland Division

Grand Jury Subpoena number

Return date on or before March 10, 2015


Dear Custodian of Records:


Enclosed is a subpoena relating to an investigation being conducted by the United States Grand

Jury for the District of Oregon in Portland. The subpoena requires that you or your company

furnish certain information to the Grand Jury by a Speci?ed deadline or ?return date.? To

facilitate this process, please carefully read each of the following enclosures:


l.the subpoena and attachment, which Ispecify the information sought by this subpoena, the

deadline for producing it, and the preferred format for producing it;


2.an information sheet describing compliance with this subpoena;

3.where appropriate, a certi?cate of authenticity of business records; and,


4.2111 information sheet describing the Grand Jury process (for ?rst-time recipients of a grand jury subpoena

from this US. Attorney?s Of?ce only).


Please follow the instructions on the attachment to the subpoena, and on each of the enclosed

information sheets.


You are asked not to disclose the existence of this subpoena or the fact of your compliance to the

customer, or any agent or representative of the customer. Please ensure that any record of your

compliance with the subpoena is separately maintained, and not commingled With the customer? 3

records. Any disclosure on your part could seriously impede an ongoing investigation of

possible Violations of federal criminal laws.


Updated 12/2014


In a statement, Geri Baden, the spokesperson for the US Attorney’s Office, said, “The U.S. Attorney’s Office does not comment regarding on-going criminal investigations.


“Public corruption investigations are extremely important because such allegations – if proven true – strike at the very core of our government’s ability to serve the people of this state and this country.


“Under federal law, agents must ensure that any such investigation occurs in a thorough and legally appropriate manner. Federal law also requires the FBI to conduct such investigations out of the public eye to ensure a fair process that doesn’t impact a person’s reputation should the allegations be proven false. Likewise, the U.S. Attorney’s Office is committed to protecting a person’s Constitutional right to an impartial judicial process should the investigation lead to that end.”


Отсюда.


Вот так. Человек в четвертый раз был избран Губернатором штата и& погорел.


Женщины  страшная сила!


Я сейчас нахожусь: Portland, OR, USA
Мой настрой: What is it?
Я слушаю: Nothing

LIci WP

То, чего я не понимаю…

Суббота, 14 Февраля 2015 г. 02:27 + в цитатник
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У меня на это ушло почти десять лет.


А кто-то отказывается от того же самого..


The number of Americans choosing to give up their passports hit a record 3,415 last year, up 14% from 2013, and 15 times more than in 2008, when only 231 people renounced their citizenship.


Experts say the recent surge is coming from expats who no longer want to deal with complicated tax paperwork, a burden that has only gotten worse in recent years.

Unlike most countries, the U.S. taxes all citizens on income, no matter where it is earned or where they live. The mountain of paperwork can be so complicated that expats are often forced to fork over high fees to hire an accountant  some say they pay as much as $1,000.


One new law designed to catch tax cheats  the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act  requires individuals to report certain foreign assets, and for banks to disclose all foreign accounts held by Americans. Thats in addition to another provision that mandates Americans to disclose foreign bank holdings worth more than $10,000.

More and more are considering renouncing, said Vincenzo Villamena of Online Taxman, an accountant who specializes in expat taxes. There are a lot of uncertainties about FATCA and [its] implementation; I dont think weve seen the full effect that FATCA can have on peoples lives.

As both expats and financial institutions rush to understand the new law, some banks have chosen to kick out their Americans clients rather than comply. If a bank mistakenly fails to report accounts held by Americans outside the U.S.  even checking and savings accounts  they can face steep penalties.


As new procedures are put in place, the pace of U.S. citizenship relinquishments is likely to slow, said Nigel Green, CEO of the deVere Group, a financial advisory firm. People are becoming aware of the various compliant ways they can mitigate the negative effects of FATCA, without having to take the drastic and often emotional step of giving up their American citizenship.

But its going to be a few years before renunciations start to taper off, Villamena said.


You do have a lot of people queuing&there are people still waiting to get their second passport [before they] renounce, he said. Obviously, you cant give up your [U.S.] passport unless you have another one.

Of course, some Americans giving up their passports could very well be fat cat tax cheats, fleeing to known tax havens to preserve their wealth. But its illegal to renounce your U.S. status to escape paying taxes, and giving up your citizenship now doesnt mean Uncle Sam wont come after you later for back taxes.

From an international perspective, the world is split into two halves  the people who are desperate to get U.S. citizenship, and the people who are desperate to give it up, Chris McLemore, senior counsel at Butler Snow, told CNNMoney in December.


Отсюда.


Ссылку нашел у [info]neznaika-nalune


Я сейчас нахожусь: Portland, OR, USA
Мой настрой: What is it?
Я слушаю: Nothing

LIci WP

Don’t Arm Ukraine

Пятница, 13 Февраля 2015 г. 15:21 + в цитатник
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Статья об Украинской трагедии в Нью-Йорк Таймс.


The Ukraine crisis is almost a year old and Russia is winning. The separatists in eastern Ukraine are gaining ground and Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, shows no signs of backing down in the face of Western economic sanctions.


Unsurprisingly, a growing chorus of voices in the United States is calling for arming Ukraine. A recent report from three leading American think tanks endorses sending Kiev advanced weaponry, and the White House’s nominee for secretary of defense, Ashton B. Carter, said last week to the Senate armed services committee, “I very much incline in that direction.”


They are wrong. Going down that road would be a huge mistake for the United States, NATO and Ukraine itself. Sending weapons to Ukraine will not rescue its army and will instead lead to an escalation in the fighting. Such a step is especially dangerous because Russia has thousands of nuclear weapons and is seeking to defend a vital strategic interest.


There is no question that Ukraine’s military is badly outgunned by the separatists, who have Russian troops and weapons on their side. Because the balance of power decisively favors Moscow, Washington would have to send large amounts of equipment for Ukraine’s army to have a fighting chance.


But the conflict will not end there. Russia would counter-escalate, taking away any temporary benefit Kiev might get from American arms. The authors of the think tank study concede this, noting that “even with enormous support from the West, the Ukrainian Army will not be able to defeat a determined attack by the Russian military.” In short, the United States cannot win an arms race with Russia over Ukraine and thereby ensure Russia’s defeat on the battlefield.


Proponents of arming Ukraine have a second line of argument. The key to success, they maintain, is not to defeat Russia militarily, but to raise the costs of fighting to the point where Mr. Putin will cave. The pain will supposedly compel Moscow to withdraw its troops from Ukraine and allow it to join the European Union and NATO and become an ally of the West.


This coercive strategy is also unlikely to work, no matter how much punishment the West inflicts. What advocates of arming Ukraine fail to understand is that Russian leaders believe their country’s core strategic interests are at stake in Ukraine; they are unlikely to give ground, even if it means absorbing huge costs.


Great powers react harshly when distant rivals project military power into their neighborhood, much less attempt to make a country on their border an ally. This is why the United States has the Monroe Doctrine, and today no American leader would ever tolerate Canada or Mexico joining a military alliance headed by another great power.


Russia is no exception in this regard. Thus Mr. Putin has not budged in the face of sanctions and is unlikely to make meaningful concessions if the costs of the fighting in Ukraine increase.


Upping the ante in Ukraine also risks unwanted escalation. Not only would the fighting in eastern Ukraine be sure to intensify, but it could also spread to other areas. The consequences for Ukraine, which already faces profound economic and social problems, would be disastrous.

The possibility that Mr. Putin might end up making nuclear threats may seem remote, but if the goal of arming Ukraine is to drive up the costs of Russian interference and eventually put Moscow in an acute situation, it cannot be ruled out. If Western pressure succeeded and Mr. Putin felt desperate, he would have a powerful incentive to try to rescue the situation by rattling the nuclear saber.


Our understanding of the mechanisms of escalation in crises and war is limited at best, although we know the risks are considerable. Pushing a nuclear-armed Russia into a corner would be playing with fire.


Advocates of arming Ukraine recognize the escalation problem, which is why they stress giving Kiev “defensive,” not “offensive,” weapons. Unfortunately, there is no useful distinction between these categories: All weapons can be used for attacking and defending. The West can be sure, though, that Moscow will not see those American weapons as “defensive,” given that Washington is determined to reverse the status quo in eastern Ukraine.


The only way to solve the Ukraine crisis is diplomatically, not militarily. Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, seems to recognize that fact, as she has said Germany will not ship arms to Kiev. Her problem, however, is that she does not know how to bring the crisis to an end.


She and other European leaders still labor under the delusion that Ukraine can be pulled out of Russia’s orbit and incorporated into the West, and that Russian leaders must accept that outcome. They will not.


To save Ukraine and eventually restore a working relationship with Moscow, the West should seek to make Ukraine a neutral buffer state between Russia and NATO. It should look like Austria during the Cold War. Toward that end, the West should explicitly take European Union and NATO expansion off the table, and emphasize that its goal is a nonaligned Ukraine that does not threaten Russia. The United States and its allies should also work with Mr. Putin to rescue Ukraine’s economy, a goal that is clearly in everyone’s interest.


It is essential that Russia help end the fighting in eastern Ukraine and that Kiev regain control over that region. Still, the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk should be given substantial autonomy, and protection for Russian language rights should be a top priority.


Crimea, a casualty of the West’s attempt to march NATO and the European Union up to Russia’s doorstep, is surely lost for good. It is time to end that imprudent policy before more damage is done — to Ukraine and to relations between Russia and the West.


John J. Mearsheimer, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, is the author of “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.”


Взято отсюда.


Я сейчас нахожусь: Portland, OR, USA
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Губернатор с проблемой…

Четверг, 12 Февраля 2015 г. 06:31 + в цитатник
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На промежуточных выборах, когда в Орегоне выбирали и Губернатора, все местные СМИ были переполнены критикой Губернатора Китцхабера. Точнее, даже не его конкретно, а его невестой.


А сейчас,  новая стадия.


СМИ уже говорят о скорой отставке, при том что сам Китцхабер это отрицает.


SALEM, Ore.  Despite speculation about John Kitzhabers future as governor of Oregon, he released a statement Wednesday afternoon saying he has no plans to step down.


Let me be as clear as I was last week, that I have no intention of resigning as Governor of the state of Oregon, he said. I was elected to do a job for the people of this great state and I intend to continue to do so.


Questions arose early Wednesday morning after Secretary of State Kate Brown abruptly left a conference in Washington, D.C., and made an unscheduled return to Oregon.


Browns return comes as Kitzhaber faces calls for his resignation. Brown would become governor if Kitzhaber leaves office before the end of his term.

The Oregonian reported that agency heads were being summoned Wednesday to the governors office as rumors of a pending resignation dominated conversations inside the Capitol.


A source told KGW that the governor met privately Tuesday with House Speaker Tina Kotek and Senate President Peter Courtney.


Meanwhile, Kitzhabers lawyer, Jim McDermott, said the governor told him Wednesday morning hes not resigning.


A spokesman for Brown, Tony Green, said he doesnt know why Brown suddenly left the conference for the National Association of Secretaries of State. She is president of the organization.


Green said Brown was originally scheduled to return late Friday.


It wasnt clear whether Browns unscheduled return had anything to do with the influence-peddling allegations surrounding Kitzhaber and his fiancee, Cylvia Hayes.


Kitzhaber is facing the biggest crisis of his nearly four-decade political career. Newspapers have called for his resignation over allegations that Hayes used the governors office to land contracts for her consulting business. The state attorney general has launched a criminal investigation and the ethics investigation has been suspended.


Brown and Kitzhaber are both Democrats.


Kitzhaber canceled a Feb. 14 appearance at a tree-planting event in Tigard.


Отсюда.


Следим за развитием событий.


Я сейчас нахожусь: Portland, OR, USA
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LIci WP

The Washington Post…

Понедельник, 09 Февраля 2015 г. 14:21 + в цитатник
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Статья из газеты об экономике Украины. В общем-то, в статье утверждается, что экономики почти нет.


Ukraine, to use a technical term, is broke. Thats what you call a country whose currency has lost half its value in just two days.


The problem is simple: Ukraine has no money and barely any economy. Its already talking to the IMF about a $15 billion bailout and whats euphemistically being called a debt restructuring—i.e., default—as its reserves have dwindled down to $6.42 billion, only enough to cover five weeks of imports. (Three months worth is considered the absolute least you can get by with).


So it was more than a bit belated for Ukraine to stop spending the few dollars it does have on propping up its currency, the hryvnia. It took until Thursday for it to do that, though, and, when it did, the reaction was swift and it was violent. The hyrvnia fell from 16.8 to 24.4 per dollar, and then again to 25.3 on Friday, on the news that the government wouldnt intervene it in anymore. In all, it was a 50 percent decline in 48 hours. And this was despite the fact that its central bank simultaneously jacked up interest rates from 14 to 19.5 percent to try to get people to hold their money in hyrvinia that would pay them a lot instead of dollars that wouldnt. That, as you can see, didnt exactly work.


Now lets back up a minute. Why is Ukraine so doomed? Well, its been mismanaged on a world-historical scale by oligarchs who, for decades, have skimmed billions off the countrys nonexistent growth. That last parts not hyperbole. It seems almost impossible, but Ukraines economy has actually shrunk since communism ended in 1991. Or since 1992. Or even 1993. And now its not-so-cold war with Russia is destroying the little thats left. Its not just that the rebel strongholds in the factory-heavy east have deprived Ukraine of a quarter of its industrial capacity. Its that it cant afford to fight against whats still its biggest trading partner—Russia. Think about that. You dont usually trade a lot with the country youre going to battle against, but Ukraines economy is so dependent on Russias that it still trades more with it than any other country. That means anything that hurts Russia, like lower oil prices or sanctions, just redounds onto Ukraine, and puts it in an even bigger financial hole.


Ukraine, in other words, doesnt have a lot of foreign currency, and doesnt have a lot of ways to earn more of it. Not when it didnt have much of an economy to begin with, its fighting its biggest trading partner, and separatists have taken away its industrial heartland. The only questions are how big the bailout will be, and how far the hrvynia will fall in the meantime.


Ukraines currency is weak, and thats not a game.


Отсюда.


Я сейчас нахожусь: Portland, OR, USA
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LIci WP

Quotes…

Понедельник, 09 Февраля 2015 г. 13:21 + в цитатник
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..One for today..


True heroism is remarkably sober, very undramatic. It is not the urge to surpass all others at whatever cost, but the urge to serve others at whatever cost.


 Arthur Ashe


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Какая-то странная информационная война…

Воскресенье, 08 Февраля 2015 г. 15:35 + в цитатник
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Говорят, что Порошенко показывал российские паспорта на публике.


Вот эта фотография, она  именно оттуда?


Порошенко


Спрашиваю, потому что& Если это оттуда, то& кто-нибудь может себе представить российского воина, идущего в атаку с загранпаспортом?


Или я чего-то не понимаю?..


Я сейчас нахожусь: Portland, OR, USA
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Финальная часть…

Суббота, 07 Февраля 2015 г. 01:58 + в цитатник
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..Это можно было бы назвать комедией, если бы за всем этим не стояли человеческие судьбы.


..И жизни..


[www.youtube.com -lnzA8kBdR4]


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