The Washington Post… |
Статья из газеты об экономике Украины. В общем-то, в статье утверждается, что экономики почти нет.
Ukraine, to use a technical term, is broke. Thats what you call a country whose currency has lost half its value in just two days.
The problem is simple: Ukraine has no money and barely any economy. Its already talking to the IMF about a $15 billion bailout and whats euphemistically being called a debt restructuring—i.e., default—as its reserves have dwindled down to $6.42 billion, only enough to cover five weeks of imports. (Three months worth is considered the absolute least you can get by with).
So it was more than a bit belated for Ukraine to stop spending the few dollars it does have on propping up its currency, the hryvnia. It took until Thursday for it to do that, though, and, when it did, the reaction was swift and it was violent. The hyrvnia fell from 16.8 to 24.4 per dollar, and then again to 25.3 on Friday, on the news that the government wouldnt intervene it in anymore. In all, it was a 50 percent decline in 48 hours. And this was despite the fact that its central bank simultaneously jacked up interest rates from 14 to 19.5 percent to try to get people to hold their money in hyrvinia that would pay them a lot instead of dollars that wouldnt. That, as you can see, didnt exactly work.
Now lets back up a minute. Why is Ukraine so doomed? Well, its been mismanaged on a world-historical scale by oligarchs who, for decades, have skimmed billions off the countrys nonexistent growth. That last parts not hyperbole. It seems almost impossible, but Ukraines economy has actually shrunk since communism ended in 1991. Or since 1992. Or even 1993. And now its not-so-cold war with Russia is destroying the little thats left. Its not just that the rebel strongholds in the factory-heavy east have deprived Ukraine of a quarter of its industrial capacity. Its that it cant afford to fight against whats still its biggest trading partner—Russia. Think about that. You dont usually trade a lot with the country youre going to battle against, but Ukraines economy is so dependent on Russias that it still trades more with it than any other country. That means anything that hurts Russia, like lower oil prices or sanctions, just redounds onto Ukraine, and puts it in an even bigger financial hole.
Ukraine, in other words, doesnt have a lot of foreign currency, and doesnt have a lot of ways to earn more of it. Not when it didnt have much of an economy to begin with, its fighting its biggest trading partner, and separatists have taken away its industrial heartland. The only questions are how big the bailout will be, and how far the hrvynia will fall in the meantime.
Ukraines currency is weak, and thats not a game.
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