This week, I came across an article in the San Francisco Gate (which, incidentally, has really ramped up its forex coverage over the last year) that addressed this very topic. Given that part-time forex traders probably outnumber those that practice the craft full-time, such an article was long overdue.

In sum, the author advises part-time traders to concentrate their trading during the busiest times of the day, or failing that, to simply trade the most active currency pairs during the period of the day that one happens to have time to trade. For example, if you wish to trade the USD/EUR but only have a limited amount of time to do so, you are advised to trade the opening of the New York and/or London sessions, at 8AM EST and 3AM EST, respectively. Alternatively, if you only have time to trade from midnight to 2am, for example, you are advised to trade currency pairs in which the quote currency is the Yen, because during that time the Tokyo session is “in full swing.”Alas, this kind of strategy is based on a very dubious assumption, which is that you should aim to trade the currency pairs which are both the most liquid and most volatile (ignore the contradiction here), because this will yield the most profits. In other words, it’s easy to capture profits when trading pairs that tend to bounce around a lot and which are cheap and easy to buy and sell. Right?

If you read the Forex Blog with any regularity and are ware that my bend is towards fundamental analysis, it’s probably already obvious to you that I don’t think this is necessarily the case. Consider that forex is a zero-sum game. In other words, on average, 50% of traders win and 50% lose. [When you account for trading costs (i.e. spreads), its probably closer to 30% win and 70% lose, but let's ignore this for the sake of argument]. Thus, the way I see it, a trader that enters the market during the busiest times has the same chance of winning (~50%) as a different trader that enters the market during the least busy time of day. Either way you cut it, someone has to win and someone has to lose, and no amount of liquidity or volatility can rectify this situation.

Thus, my advice for part-time traders is to forget trading altogether. If you don’t have the time to constantly monitor the market, pore over charts, and develop technical strategy, the odds of winning are pretty low. On the other hand, why not shift your focus from trading to investing? Trading is difficult under the best of circumstances and even more difficult when you don’t have enough time to make a real commitment.The only way around this is to shift your time horizon from minutes to days – or even weeks. This way, it won’t matter when you have time to trade. Spreads might be marginally higher (as evidenced in the spikes in he chart above, which shows how spreads fluctuate over time) for the USD/EUR at midnight than at 8am, but if you’re planning on holding the pair for more than 10 seconds (and your target profit is greater than 15 pips), this is basically irrelevant.

This way, you also don’t have to worry about carefully planning your entry and exit into positions. Entering a swing trade with a targeted profit of 500pips is probably just as good at 4am as it is at 7am, all else being equal. While this doesn’t necessarily increase the odds of success (above 50%), at least it gives you a great deal more flexibility in being a part-time trader.

The verdict is nearly in; there will be no QE3. The second round of quantitative easing (“QE2”) will expire at the end of this month, and while it will not be unwound for quite some time, the Fed has indicated that it will not be followed by yet another round. The question on the minds of forex traders, of course, is what does this mean for the Dollar?In his most recent press conference, Ben Bernanke, himself, indicated that QE3 was unlikely. According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg News, the majority of FX analysts (65%) believe him. Simply, the circumstances don’t support further easing. To be sure, the unemployment rate remains high, and the economy is teetering on the verge of double-dip recession. However, the last two rounds did little to address either of these problems, and companies have hoarded cash rather than investing in new plant and workers.

Interest rates are still hovering around record lows, and there isn’t anything to be gained from trying to lower them further. Besides, given that inflation is now above 3% – due to an explosion in good and energy prices – QE3 would simply be too risky. Economist Ken Goldstein summarized the situation as follows: “We will come to the end of QE2 and largely we mark about how little happened when it ended and that’s also an argument about why there may not be persuasive argument to do a QE3.”

On the other hand, there are some analysts who think that QE3 is inevitable (29%). PIMCO’s Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, recently indicated that, “Next Jackson Hole in August will likely hint at QE3/interest rate caps.” (Personally, I think that he’s probably just bitter that his forecast of a decline in Treasury Bond prices hasn’t materialized). One columnist wrote that the Fed’s arm will be twisted by the ongoing collapse of the housing market, while others have argued that the recent decline in the S&P 500 will spur the Fed into action. Most of us, however, believe that the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach before ultimately conceding that more easing is necessary.For now at least, then, the prevailing assumption is that there will not be a QE3. As for how forex markets have digested this news, they have taken it in stride. The Dollar is now holding its value, and as I wrote in a previous post, it may even have bottomed out. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that the Euro is being punished by another flare-up in the sovereign debt crisis and investors are getting nervous about bubbles in emerging market currencies, all of which provide support for the dollar.

The fact that QE2 will soon end without having triggered financial apocalypse or hyperinflation – as some cassandras initially predicted – is something that is worth nothing. Of course, the proceeds of QE1 and QE2 will be recycled indefinitely into the markets, and forex investors can’t completely put quantitative easing behind them. Still, that there won’t be any more additional cash injected into commodities markets and emerging economy asset markets means that one of the main sources of downward pressure on the dollar has been eliminated.

Ironically, it is possible that the unveiling of QE3 could actually cause the dollar to rally. The reason is that there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the markets, which provides the dollar with some safe haven demand. If the Fed were to concede that all is not well on the economic front and respond by more money printing, it could drive some safe haven flows into the US, even to the extent that it would overwhelm outflows driven by concerns over inflation.

Personally, I think the dollar will continue to hold its value, and perhaps even appreciate slightly in the near-term, as forex markets dither over the way forward.

“Australia is about to enter a boom that should last decades…The Australian dollar is unlikely to go back to where it was, and manufacturing will shrink in importance to the economy, perhaps even faster than it has been.” This, according to Martin Parkinson, Treasury Minister of Australia. While 30 years from now, Mr. Parkinson’s prognosis might probe to be accurate, I’m not so sure it applies to the period 3 months from now. Here’s why:

First of all, the putative economic boom that is taking place in Australia is being driven entirely by high commodity prices and surging production and exports. Since peaking at the end of April, commodity prices have fallen mightily. You can see from the chart above that there continues to exist a tight correlation between the AUD/USD and commodities prices. As commodities prices have fallen over the last two months, so has the Australian Dollar.In addition, while demand will probably remain strong over the long-term, it may very well slacken over the short-term, due to declining economic growth across the industrialized world. Consider also that Australia’s largest market for commodity exports – China – may have difficulty sustaining a GDP growth rate of 10%, and at the very least, new fixed-asset investment (which necessitates demand for raw materials) will temporarily peak in the immediate future.

Finally, the mining sector directly accounts for only 8% of Australia’s economy, which means that only to a limited extent to high commodities prices contribute to the bottom line of Australian GDP. This notion is reinforced by the 1.2% economic contraction in the second quarter – the biggest decline in 20 years – and the fact that GDP is basically flat over the last three quarters. Many non-mining economic indicators are sagging, and the number of corporate bankruptcies is 10% higher than in 2010. In the end, then, the ebb and flow of Australia’s fortune depends less on commodities, and more on other sectors.Mr. Parkinson’s optimistic forecasts might also be undermined in the short-term by a looser-than-expected monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia last hiked its benchmark interest rate in November 2010, and may not hike again for a few more months due to moderating economic growth and proportionally moderate inflation. Given that an attractive interest rate differential may be driving some of the speculative activity that has girded the Aussie’s rise, a decline in this differential could likewise propel it downward.

That’s because anecdotal reports suggest that the Australian Dollar remains a popular long currency for carry traders, funded by shorting the US Dollar, and to a lesser extent, Japanese Yen. Given that many of these carry trades are heavily leveraged, it wouldn’t take much to trigger a short squeeze and a rapid decline in the AUD/USD. For evidence of this phenomenon, one has to look no further back than May 2010, when the Aussie fell 10-15% in only three weeks.Ultimately, as one commentator recently pointed out, the Aussie’s 70% rise since 2008 might better be seen as US Dollar weakness (which also catalyzed the rise in commodity prices). The apparent stabilizing of the dollar, then, might let some air out of the currency down under.

In the comments section today, D asked how do I track the quality of my trades.

My answer…

I keep two types of journals:
a qualitative journal - my ‘psyche’ journal. This journal has 3 aims:
to identify patterns of success and failure in my qualitative environment. For example, if I have 10 consecutive winning trades, do my processes change? Do I stop doing what has brought me success? If so what will I do differently next time. I seek to record any changes or significant events in my psychological environment just before and during a trade.
a safe place where I can vent - a place where I can pour out my frustrations, anxieties, and fears on the one hand; and on the other, the successes, elation and rewards.
a quantitative journal where I keep the stats I use to assess my trading. Over various time frames I keep:
Ave$ win
Ave$ loss
Win Rate
Loss Rate
Date, day and time of trade
Consecutive wins
Consecutive losses
Rating for trade where 3 points means I enter and exit in line with my rules; 1 point means I enter OR exit in line with my rules; 0 points means my entry and exit were not in line with my rules OR I failed to make a trade my rules said I should. My aim is to achieve 90% of the possible points in any month.

The ratings are a rich source of information. For example if I scored less than 90% and had the best ever dollar result, I would want to know how I did this. Questions to consider:

a) Has my intuition found a new pattern?

b) If I had followed my rules, would my result have been better or worse? etc.

Trust that answers the question.

It seems as if wedding insurance is another way of making money for these companies. Just like car insurance, travel insurance and health insurance, your wedding insurance is equally important.If you feel it is a sheer waste of money, then you are wrong. Actually, the amount people spend on weddings is extremely lavish and it is difficult to skip this unnecessary expense. A wedding ceremony is an unforgettable occasion and everyone who will attend the wedding are surely your well-wishers. They will never want anything bad happen to you. However, if things go haywire, you still have home insurance for your household possessions and health insurance comes to your rescue if you have health problems. Your wedding ring will be covered by the complimentary insurance policy which was offered to you.

Do not consider this insurance cover as an extra expenditure as you never know when you will have to take the help of this insurance cover. Just think of it as a protective umbrella. As the D-Day approaches, you may realise that your bank balance is shrinking and there are few monetary issues to be settled. If you have this cover by your side, it gives you a sense of relief. Time just ticks away and the wedding day fast approaches. You have to pay up the dozen separate companies like venue arranger, caterers, suppliers and so on. Even if one of these go wrong or does not work according to your plan, then there are surely going to be problems.

But if you have this insurance cover by your side, there is no cause for worry. There may be many couples who faced similar situations in their life as they ignored purchasing wedding insurance. They have to put up with all these huge expenses in the last minute.Even simple damages to your wedding like your wedding cake getting damaged while in transit or your wedding ring getting stolen or lost can affect you mentally. Finding the money to pay for your carriage or limousine is another expensive affair and if you had planned these things originally, you would have saved a lot of unnecessary expenditure.

If you are bogged with all these doubts, then you do not have to worry. Just keep your cool and visit the websites of insurance providers who offer wedding insurance. This way you can remain at peace and need not have to worry about these small issues. Even the wedding insurance company may not be able to provide you every detail as to what are the things which are eligible for coverage as this is quite confusing. It is not worth gambling especially when it comes to wedding matters and you can obviously not take a chance. This cover is ideal for a couple who has a fixed budget and especially when the wedding preparations are just going to start. The policy provides coverage especially when there is a crisis situation like the bride or the groom falling ill, bad climatic conditions etc.

It seems that there is never a good time to start saving as each month seems to throw up one unexpected bill or another. But, if you are in a position to start saving then it is better to start sooner rather than later to get the best return on your savings and investments. So follow these five simple steps for successful saving and investing.

1. Work out and pay off your debts

If you have a large amount of debt then there is no point trying to save money as the interest rate you’ll be paying on your debts will far outweigh any return you will see on any savings. So the first thing you need to do is work out how much money you owe out in loans and credit cards (do not factor in mortgage payments) and then calculate when you can feasibly repay these debts.

Once you have repaid these debts then you are ready to start saving as even just putting to one side the money you have been paying in interest is a good start to building up a substantial savings account.

2. What are you saving for?

When you start saving it is important to have a savings goal in mind as this gives you a focus to continue saving. This is important because without a goal in mind it is easy to for go putting money into your savings account and spend it on an impulse purchase.

So you first must determine whether your goal is short term, for example, saving up to buy a new games console, medium term, a deposit for a house, or long term, a retirement fund. And once this has been determined then you can begin to structure your savings strategy and work out how long it will take to achieve your savings goal. And it is important at this point to come up with an important time frame in which to meet your savings goal as if this is unrealistic then you may become disillusioned and give up on saving altogether.

3. Create a budget

Once you have worked out how much you need to save and over what period of time you now need to make a complete list of you income and expenditure and work out a proper budget, that is one that you can stick to, for the month ahead. When creating a budget be sure to break down and factor in those annual outgoings such as car or home insurance as these are large expenses that can be easily overlooked if they are only paid once a year.

To make a successful budget you need to make a note of how much money you bring in each month and then subtract each of your outgoings, no matter how small or large. The best way to do this is to keep a record of everything you spend over the course of a month and then calculate you total outgoings and subtract this from your income. The figure you are then left with should equate to the amount that you can then put away as monthly savings.

4. Cut your expenses

Once you have created a budget and you can see exactly where your money is going each month then it is a good idea to try and cut down your monthly expenditure. If you can trim your monthly outgoings, even by just a small amount, then this can soon add up and may help you to reach your savings goal that little bit faster. For example, if you are paying £2.00 for a coffee on your way to work each morning then this will add up to between £40 and £50 per month and up to £600 over the course of a year!

5. Choose the right savings account

Once you have worked out how much money you have to put to one side each month then it is important to work out which type of savings account is right for you and financial comparison sites such as Moneysupermarket can help you decide which is the best type of account for your circumstances. However, if you are planning for a long term savings goal such as retirement then you may want or you may want to seek professional financial advice.

Unfortunately credit card fraud is something that happens almost every minute of the day; it can be that someone gets a hold of your details and charges great a mounts to you even though you are not using the card. This debt can be added to your credit report and hurt you badly; you could get contacted by numerous collection agencies even though this debt isn’t yours. In reality you have been a victim of fraud but there are things in which you can do to eliminate this.

If you have noticed there are any payments or charges on your bank card or your credit card then you have to contact the company of your credit cards immediately. There should be an emergency number on your card or if you haven’t got the actual card the statements and alert them that you have not been using the credit card and that someone has been using your information to gets a credit card resulting in fraud. You also have to make aware that you are not going to be paying for this debt either and the credit card company will then stop the account and close it down so that no debt can be added and the card can’t be used again.

You have to call the police and fill out any and all necessary police reports which will have all the details written over the fraud debt so that if there has been any debts on your credit cards then can be documented so remember to take all of your documents over these debts to confirm you have been a victim of fraud.

You need to create a fraud alert on your credit reports with the three credit bureaus so that they know that you have been a victim of fraud and that information can be placed onto your reports and this will help to stop and get rid of your credit card debts which has been from fraud.

You have to keep on looking at your credit reports. This helps you to notice anything that has been an act of fraud on any of your accounts whether it is a credit card or bank charge. If you have been a victim of fraud then you are supposed to get a free copy of your reports so that you can see if there has been any fraud. You must file a dispute as soon as you notice anything wrong.

You should be contacting the credit card companies that have got your name on any cards that have not been used by you or has been issued to you personally. You have to tell them that you have not opened any accounts or have been using these cards either; remember to show all proof from the police that you have been a victim of fraud meaning you will not be responsible for debt.

You have to write to them yourself and demand that this debt is not yours and have to stop approaching you for any repayments.

If you are actually contacted by any debt collector or any agencies then you really have to make sure that this is your debt and no-one else’s so you have to get proof. Remember that is the one number priority for this.

If anyone is trying to collect a debt that was made via fraud then you have to make sure that you have got any and all reports to the police and any other documents that say you are not responsible for the debt. Since this is not your debt then you have to get that debt removed from your record and eliminate that from you and for them to stop contacting you about the debt.

Today advertised everywhere are companies saying that they can go to them and reduce the interest of the debts that everyone is paying for over half and there will not be any fees for being late. They say that all monthly payments can be repaid with a lower cost than before but even though we can be tempted to go for this route people can be tricked and fooled by these advertisements.

Debt consolidation comes with many difficulties however because there are thousands of companies that are just willing to take your money and deliver nothing in return and if we are being honest finding a good and very legit company is very hard to do however. They are promising one thing but they don’t deliver.

There is a way to find a legit consolidation program however so firstly if you need a consolidation program then you are in a bad way and you are going to have to work hard to get rid of the debt.

Your cards are going to be maxed out and you can’t even make any payments to these debts; and if that happens then you are in a very bad way. The truth is that before any debt consolidation is thought out you are going to have to really know what the debt is and if this is your only option and if it is then proceed but if there is something else to try then try before this stage because really this is the last stage.

Ask yourself if you can pay the lowest debt off first and then the next or is it the highest amount you wish to pay off, if so then try to stick to one method so that you can take a handle on the debt.

You get there in the end but you can get rid of the debt quicker but if all of this is not possible in any way then you are going to have to think about another option. If you cannot pay back the debts at the end of the month then you are going to have to look for consolidation programs.

Sometimes debt is too much to handle and you could need a middle man to help you to negotiate with the creditors and try to get one payment at the end of the month so that you can pay back the debt. The only thing is that you are going to have to look for a legit consolidation company.

There have been thousands of ads like this over the internet, TVs and radios all claiming that they can get rid of the debt by their consolidation program but in reality that happens very rarely. Most of these companies will claim they can get rid of all of the debt and that they guarantee to get rid of the debt by the end of the year or even six months and if we are being very honest that may never be possible.

If you do find one of these however then you should be contacting the police about these but if you do find one but are unsure of it then think about checking its background to see if their reputation is good or not.

Finding a company that is really going to help you is good but difficult, you are going to have to give them all of your details over your finances so that a change can be made, that they can see what you are bringing in and the debts and try to get a good hold over the debts.

Remember that when the debt is looming over you it is going to be hard to get rid of it and for most of the day you will think about this but try to think positive.

Try to remember that debt consolidation is the real last step for you to take; this should be the only option left for you to try. Don’t go to a debt consolidation if there are other options but remember if a debt collector have came to your door then think about going to a lawyer.

Many of us have got problems with credit cards and loans equally debt that cost of thousands of dollars every month and for most of it you know that there is no way that you can actually pay back. You should always try looking for something that is going to help you to reduce the credit card debt as well as getting a hold of your money again because that is important for many of us to have however. Remember however you will need all of your credit debt so that you can see how much you owe and what the interest rates are.

You should try calling the companies up firstly and tell them of your situation, that you have problems trying to pay the debt back. Tell them that you have every intention of paying the debt but you have got some problems with the cost of the payments every month.

See if there are any ways in which you could get the interest rates of payments every month lower; at least see if there is any way to stop the interest increasing and ask if there can be a zero interest option for you. This would make it much easier to get rid of the debt.

Try keeping money back for any emergencies and anything that is left over from your income and after paying the debts could be split into going into an emergency account as well as towards the debt.

You could think about a home equity loan that helps to consolidate the debt but be careful this is still a loan but the rates are lower than most other loans. There is the option of a tax deductible also unlike with credit card debt.

If everything else fails then try looking at a consolidation company so that you can get some counseling sessions to help reduce the debt and get a hold of the finances in your account. It will be wise to try looking for negotiation process with the creditors that you have so that when it comes to taking a control of your debt then you could go to the creditors informing of the situation and remember to say that you want to pay the debt back but you need a payment plan that will be reasonable for both of you so that you can pay back the debt.

If you do negotiate with the creditors and find out if you could get new conditions or terms and if so then keep to these new terms. You could change the terms from the debt and repayment plans so that both you and the creditors are happy with the payment plans.

Tips & Warnings
Always look to keep records over any and all conversations with the credit card companies.
Wise to keep all details of conversations so that everything can be kept as a record with you incase anything should happen.
Remember there are a lot of scammers out there and they will be happy to charge you for their services and take off with your money without a second thought.

A Virtual Receptionist is one who, using a home office will cater to your company, as a client and take all your clients calls for you. This service is generally offered to a firm handling a number of calls from their customers. Since they are independent contractors, you as a customer of the virtual receptionist do not need to worry about the employees on that side. Also advantageous is the fact that you will not need to provide them extra office space, as they come with their own. Most Virtual Receptionist companies do not regard the size of your business, whether big or small. Most of the times a virtual receptionist is a sole person that works with you without actually meeting face-to-face with you.

The Virtual Receptionist helps you by basically taking all your calls for you and replying in a pre-defined set of dialogues, enabling them to assess what kind of call it is, whether a complaint or payments, etc.. It will tell the costumer whenever you will be busy. Any call made through this mode is screened and recorded giving you complete transparency and control over any aspect of call handling you want. Virtual receptionists may also offer you a larger number of services, depending on the kind of call handling you want. They may take inbound calls, deliver outbound messages- such as delivery notices- or even broadcast calls to your customers. Most places keep open business times to help you with overseas calls. Visit this site for offers on virtual office services and virtual receptionist services.

Some service providers may offer advanced features such as better call routing, a sophisticated system for your voicemail needs. This uses speech recognition to aid a faster service time. This means customers will need to just say what they want like they would to an actual receptionist and be directed towards it. Some may provide a toll free number, if you are willing to pay extra, forwarding all your calls from your customers through theses toll free numbers.

Due to the complete transparency policy, you may also avail of caller id. You can also view the length of each call and also receive information to any call routing. An automated outbound call system can get you free of calling up customers for various reasons.

All in all, a Virtual Receptionist a very effective way to cut expenses while maintaining an outward appearance of professionalism. Your customers get what they want even when you may be on a vacation.