What is behind the new aggravation in the south-east of Ukraine

Due to the escalation of the conflict in the Donbass, Kiev faces criticism from European partners, but rejects their accusations and demands to "put Moscow in its place." According to experts, Ukraine is trying to provoke Russia in order to achieve increased pressure on Moscow from the West, including on the issue of Nord Stream 2. However, experts believe that such a plan of Kiev is doomed to failure.

The Special Representative of the OSCE Chairman in Ukraine Mikko Kinnunen called on all parties to the conflict in the Donbass to prevent further escalation of the situation. According to him, the Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) of the department recorded an increase in tension in the region.

"The SMM reported increased tensions along the contact line and an increase in the presence of heavy equipment in the withdrawal zone. In raising issues related to the use of prohibited equipment and weapons systems, I called on all parties to adhere to their obligations and prevent further escalation," Kinnunen said in a statement.

Similar demands to the parties to the conflict in the south-east of Ukraine were expressed by the representative of the German Foreign Ministry Andrea Sasse. She called on the parties to de-escalate, and also expressed concern about the increase in the use of heavy weapons in the Donbass, which is a violation of the Minsk agreements.

At the same time, the Ukrainian side responded to Berlin's criticism quite sharply. Ukraine's ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk, said that Kiev categorically rejects the warning of the German Foreign Ministry.

"Ukraine has a legitimate right to self-defense when its territory is bombed day and night with Russian heavy weapons, and when civilians and soldiers are killed. Therefore, we call on the federal government, instead of expressing concern about the dramatic situation in the occupied territories, to redouble its efforts as a mediator to convene the Normandy summit in Berlin, as agreed, and put Moscow in its place," the diplomat said.

What is happening in Donbass

The concern of the OSCE and Germany is related to the consistent deterioration of the situation in the south-east of Ukraine. Tension in the Donbass has been growing since the end of summer, when the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic (DPR and LPR) started talking about the increase in the number of attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as a result of which both sides were killed and wounded.

Cases of mutual or unilateral attacks between Ukraine and the DPR and the LPR are by no means a sensation, but their intensity has decreased markedly since the conclusion of the ceasefire agreement last year. Moreover, the incidents often directly concerned military positions, but since August 2021, there has been a noticeable increase in attacks on civilian targets.

Following the increase in the intensity of shelling in September, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny by a special directive lifted all restrictions on return fire for the Ukrainian military in the conflict zone, which was one of the main provisions when concluding a ceasefire agreement.

This was followed by an increase in the number of attacks, and then more serious steps, including, as reported by various media, the pulling of equipment to settlements near the contact line of the parties. In October, the aggravation intensified even more - at the beginning of the month, the Ukrainian side captured the representative of the LPR in the Joint Center for Control and Coordination of the Ceasefire in Donbass (JCCC) Andriy Kosyak.

The apogee of the current deterioration of the situation was the events of late October. First, Ukraine for the first time used the Turkish bayraktar attack drone, thereby violating the provisions on the truce of the parties, and then a group of intelligence officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine penetrated and captured the village of Staromaryevka, located in the "gray zone" between the territory of the DPR and Ukraine.

Why Kiev is going to exacerbate

The parties to the conflict often blame each other for the deterioration of the situation in the Donbass, but the DPR and LPR, unlike Ukraine, have not yet resorted to forays into the "gray zone". From the point of view of DPR Foreign Minister Natalia Nikonorova, Kiev consciously seeks to escalate the conflict to divert the attention of Ukrainians from the problems in the country.

"The Ukrainian authorities under the leadership of [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky are simply trying to divert attention from the catastrophic socio-economic situation in this state by inciting escalation in the Donbass. And for the sake of this goal, the leadership of Ukraine is ready to call fire on its own servicemen, "Nikonorova pointed out.

In parallel with the aggravation in the south-east of Ukraine, Kiev intensified attempts to organize a meeting within the framework of the "Normandy format", and also intensified criticism of Russia because of the rise in energy prices in Europe and the alleged infringement of the interests of the Ukrainian side with the help of Nord Stream 2.

The meeting in the "Normandy format" is largely hampered by the fact that there is still no progress on Donbass issues. In fact, the settlement of the conflict is frozen, the work of the trilateral subgroup on this issue stands still, which the parties accuse each other of. In addition, the Ukrainian authorities still refuse to implement the political part of the Minsk agreements, especially in the context of direct dialogue with the self-proclaimed republics.

According to the Ukrainian edition of Strana.ua, Kiev is spinning an aggravation in the Donbass in order to get Europe and the United States to block the Russian Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, the launch of which can seriously reduce the need for gas transit through the territory of Ukraine. According to the publication, the plan of the Ukrainian authorities is quite simple: to provoke Russia to a tough response to the Donbass and try to disrupt the commissioning of the project on this topic.

From the point of view of a member of the Council for Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation Bogdan Bezpalko, Ukraine is really exacerbating in the Donbass, pursuing military-political goals.

"Kiev is trying to provoke Russia into a series of retaliatory measures of a tough nature in order for European countries to impose sanctions against Moscow, within the framework of which the certification of Nord Stream 2 may be delayed or some new economic coercive measures may be introduced against the Russian side. And new provocations are likely to be permanent. They will alternate with periods of relative calm," the expert said.

Oleg Bondarenko, director of the Foundation for Progressive Policy, partially agrees with this. In his opinion, Kiev's actions are a "lice test for Moscow", an attempt to determine Russia's readiness for tough steps in the Donbass.

"It's such a lice test: 'What if we do this? How will the Russians behave?" There is information that the Ukrainian military captured 37 Russian citizens from a village on the contact line. If it is confirmed, Moscow will not be able to stand aside and will have to react. And, of course, Russia will be provoked to use force," the expert said.

Will Kiev be able to provoke Moscow

At the moment, there have been no "tough measures" on the part of Russia due to the aggravation of the situation in the Donbass. The Kremlin limited itself to expressing regrets because of the destabilization of the situation in the region, including through the use of a Turkish drone by Ukraine. The issue of a meeting in the Normandy format still remains in limbo. And the certification of Nord Stream 2 continues without any restrictions.

Interviewed experts agree that Ukraine's plan to force Moscow to take any reciprocal steps is unlikely to work. According to Oleg Bondarenko of the Progressive Policy Foundation, such provocations are likely to lead nowhere.

"Now in Europe, according to the famous expression of Henry Kissinger, it is unclear who to call to talk to the EU. Angela Merkel is already acting German chancellor, and French President Emmanuel Macron has elections on his nose. That is, everyone, to put it mildly, is not up to the "Normandy format". Support for Kiev from the European Union can now only be inertial, so to speak, rolled up. More active can only be from Washington. But everything will depend on the actions that can be taken in the Donbass, "the expert explained.

At the same time, Bogdan Bezpalko from the Council for Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation stated that Ukraine failed to achieve the desired effect, despite the use of a Turkish drone and the seizure of a village in the "gray zone".

"As part of all these actions, there were no measures against Ukraine by Russia. That is, a no-fly zone was introduced, no blow was struck - none of what the Armed Forces of Ukraine was counting on took place. Therefore, there are still no grounds for imposing sanctions against Moscow or delaying Nord Stream 2, "the expert summed up.Sour