• The Fragile Pause: Assessing the Current Truce

• Mediator Efforts and the Push for a Second Phase

• On-the-Ground Realities: Violence Amidst the Truce

• The U.S. Peace Plan: From Hostage Exchange to Future Frameworks

• The Central Demand: A Path to Palestinian Statehood

• Regional Perspectives and the Road Ahead

The Gaza ceasefire has entered a pivotal and fragile stage as its initial phase concludes, with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani declaring a "critical moment" in the process. With one Israeli hostage's remains yet to be handed over by militants, international mediators are intensifying efforts to broker a transition to a more permanent agreement. The Prime Minister, speaking at the Doha Forum, sharply distinguished the current lull in fighting from a true ceasefire, emphasizing that real stability requires a full Israeli withdrawal and freedom of movement for Gazans. This statement underscores the profound challenges facing the U.S.-led peace plan, even as reported violence continues to claim Palestinian lives, highlighting the tenuous nature of the current pause in a conflict now in its third year.

Mediator Efforts and the Push for a Second Phase

International diplomacy, spearheaded by Qatar and the United States, is currently focused on securing the second phase of the ceasefire agreement. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani stated that mediators are working diligently to "force the way forward" to this next stage, which aims to cement a more durable deal. The first phase, based on a 20-point U.S. plan, successfully facilitated a halt in major combat operations and a significant prisoner exchange, freeing dozens of hostages for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. However, the transition beyond this initial humanitarian pause remains highly uncertain. The upcoming phase envisions a complex restructuring of Gaza's governance and security, including the deployment of an international security force, the formation of a new technocratic government, the disarmament of Hamas, and an eventual Israeli military withdrawal. The appointment of an international oversight body, potentially led by the U.S. President, is anticipated by year's end, signaling the high-stakes international investment in preventing a return to full-scale war.

On-the-Ground Realities: Violence Amidst the Truce

Despite the official ceasefire, the situation on the ground in Gaza remains volatile and deadly. Palestinian health officials report that over 360 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire since the truce initially took effect on October 10th, indicating that the pause has not been absolute. Recent incidents, such as an airstrike northwest of Gaza City that killed two Palestinians according to local hospitals, continue to fuel tensions. While the Israeli army disputed awareness of that specific strike, it confirmed military actions elsewhere, stating soldiers killed three militants who crossed into the Israeli-controlled northern zone of Gaza. These ongoing clashes along demarcation lines demonstrate the extreme fragility of the ceasefire and the persistent risk of escalation. Each incident tests the resolve of the truce and complicates the already delicate task of mediators working to build trust between the warring parties for a more comprehensive agreement.

The U.S. Peace Plan: From Hostage Exchange to Future Frameworks

The current process is guided by a U.S. presidential peace plan that outlines a multi-phase approach. The successfully implemented first phase focused on immediate confidence-building measures: stopping the fighting and executing the hostage-prisoner swap. Israel s recent dispatch of a delegation to Egypt to discuss recovering the final hostage's remains is part of concluding this initial stage. The yet-to-begin second phase constitutes a far more ambitious and politically challenging endeavor. It seeks to address core security and governance issues that have long plagued the Gaza Strip. The proposed introduction of an international security force is a particularly critical and sensitive component, requiring broad consensus from regional actors and a defined mandate. Furthermore, the plan's long-term vision includes a possible "pathway" to Palestinian independence, a concept that remains a major point of contention and is explicitly rejected by Israel's current government, casting a long shadow over the entire process.

The Central Demand: A Path to Palestinian Statehood

A fundamental schism in perspectives threatens the longevity of any agreement. Qatari and other Arab leaders are adamant that a temporary ceasefire or a solution confined to Gaza is insufficient. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani articulated this position clearly, stating peace is only possible with the eventual establishment of a Palestinian state. "There is a root for this conflict. And this conflict is not only about Gaza... It s about the West Bank. It s about the rights of the Palestinians for their state," he asserted. This viewpoint frames the Gaza war as a symptom of the broader, unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Qatari Prime Minister expressed hope for collaboration with the U.S. administration to achieve this vision, positioning a two-state solution not as a distant ideal but as an essential prerequisite for lasting regional security. This stands in direct opposition to the stance of Israel s hard-line coalition, which rejects Palestinian sovereignty, setting the stage for a formidable diplomatic clash in the proposed later phases of the plan.

Regional Perspectives and the Road Ahead

The path forward is fraught with obstacles, as reflected in regional statements. The Qatari leader s insistence that the upcoming phase should itself be "temporary" and lead to statehood illustrates the Arab world's strategic framing of the ceasefire as a stepping stone, not an endpoint. This perspective is widely shared across the Middle East, where leaders view a comprehensive resolution to the Palestinian question as integral to regional stability. The involvement of other key regional players, whose comments were echoed in the forum, adds further layers of diplomatic complexity. With the first phase winding down, the immediate challenge is to secure the handover of the final hostage remains and formally extend the humanitarian pause. The greater, more daunting challenge is to bridge the seemingly irreconcilable gaps between the parties on fundamental issues of security, governance, and political horizons to avoid a catastrophic return to widespread violence and to build a foundation for a more stable future.

Источник: https://assembly-post.com/component/k2/item/215597