In April, the Russian ruble deserves applause for its faint attempts to regain footing. Apart from the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s authorities are to blame for the crater in the oil market which sent the ruble into a tailspin. Having hit historic lows, the Russian currency has been creeping upward. An 8-day fragile climb does not mean that the ruble has won back most of its earlier losses. However, the pro-Kremlin media presented this as the ruble’s remarkable resilience amid global market jitters. In fact, the new long-awaited OPEC+ deal on oil production cuts failed to prop up oil prices contrary to market expectations. Both Russian and foreign analysts warn of bleak prospects for the ruble’s recovery. Being vulnerable to the state of affairs in the oil market, the ruble will be able to gain momentum on condition that oil prices rebound at least to $45 – 50 per barrel which might happen only in the medium term. Nowadays, a sharp contraction in global energy demand amid the coronavirus pandemic has generated a glut in the oil market. As most countries are carrying on with lockdown measures, energy demand is set to remain low. Experts at Goldman Sachs predict that Brent crude will pull back to $20 per barrel. To make things worse, Saudi Arabia is not going to terminate the oil price war with Russia. Recently, Riyadh made big discounts on May contracts for its key markets. Against this background, the ruble has got stuck firmly at multi-year lows.

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