The pre-holiday moods typical for December also covered the US stock market. Its active growth was recorded throughout almost the whole year. December is traditionally considered one of the best for the markets of the year. Experts find it difficult to answer how it will be this time, but expect to rise. Positive in the current forecasts was the growth of the S&P 500 index, which since the beginning of the year added more than 25%. Last week was also favorable: the Russell 2000 index of small-cap companies showed an uptrend along with other indices, rising above its 52-week high. Experts consider this a good sign for the American stock market.

The topic of US and Chinese trade negotiations still remains relevant. Any news from the trade front can be a catalyst that can continue or stop the rally until the end of the year. The current news background is extremely unstable, analysts emphasize. Only US President Donald Trump noted that the “first phase” of the deal was almost ready, as the signing of the law in support of the protesters in Hong Kong made a mess. This provoked an extremely negative reaction from Beijing, which added tension to the trade negotiations.

According to preliminary estimates, December 2019 was very successful for the markets, and for the S&P 500 index it was almost the best year. This has not been recorded since 1928, experts emphasize. However, they urge not to rest on their laurels, since the positive end of the year is in question. According to Sam Stovall, CFRA’s lead investment strategist, the US market is usually adjusting by mid-December, but then, by the end of January next year, a good shopping opportunity presents itself. The expert does not expect a noticeable decline in the near future. Analysts draw attention to the fact that Thanksgiving in the United States is a kind of barometer for the market. If the market is growing by 20% or more before this holiday, then during December, a rise of about 1.8% is also recorded. However, in this barrel of honey there is a fly in the ointment. In the last month of the year, the most significant risk for the market will be the result of trade negotiations between the United States and China. Another important factor is the economic reports, thanks to which investors can evaluate the actions of the Fed in relation to lower rates. In current reports, data on population employment become the most important item. According to preliminary calculations, in November 183 thousand jobs were created in the USA, and a month earlier - 128 thousand jobs.

Currently, the US economy is showing signs of recovery. Positive economic data encouraged the market and gave optimism to investors. However, the consumer remains the key growth factor, analysts recall. The purchasing power of the population is the most important driver of market growth. It correlates with employment data because a strong labor market is critical for consumers and their costs.

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