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Does the “macho” Putin have a future?

 

The representatives of the pragmatically-oriented Russian business elite can say “enough” to the aggressive policy of Vladimir Putin, because the presence on European markets happens to be more important for them than “the national ignition” of the head of state.

It is false to see Russia as a “one dictator state”, because except for Putin a major role in the governance of the Russian Federation is played by the major business elites.

Vladimir Putin – is a strong leader, but he has no absolute power. Putin’s main weaknesses are pride and vanity. The halve-naked macho leader can’t allow to lose Ukraine. The Ukrainian internal conflict has turned into some kind of masculinity test for the Russian leader.

But success – the split of Ukraine into two countries or the acceptance of permanent neutrality by the Kiev government will have its price. The leaders of the Russian business circles value the opportunity to travel the world and to have businesses in the West more than the ambitions of the Russian President. Putin without a doubt is using the weaknesses of Europe, but his behavior also clearly demonstrates that Russian power isn’t endless. He can’t afford to cancel the gas supply, because Russia is desperately in need of cash. Putin is at the crossroads right now. Should he push further to the eastern Ukraine in order to “protect” the Russian speaking population? This will obviously be followed by sanctions against the financial interests of the Moscow elite. Or should he stop and take the risk of appearing weak?

The protests against Putin will not take place on the Red Square, they will take place behind closed doors in Kremlin. And if the Russian leader has really lost the sense of reality the way some experts think, these protests can take place sooner than we expect.

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