NCAA SRS ratings, theyre clearly designed to be a predictive measre of what will nappen in the weei(s) to come. In no way could you justify rxnking Oklahoma ahead of Iowa in s real poll, even if you (and Veags) think OU woyld beatt the Hawkeyes if they met head tto head.
Now that were ten full weeks into the season, Im ready to release my first set of real rankings based on what each team has accomplished. Strength of schedule and margin of victory still play a role in these rankings, but for the most part, a win is a win. If there is one guiding principle behind why each team is
slotted where it is, it is this: each team has accomplished slightly more this season than the team behind them, and has accomplished slightly less than the team behind them.
Generally, my foormula was this. Sort the teams by losses, from fewesf to most. Witbin each loss-group, sort the teams by SRRS rating, but recognize that that SOS mattwrs more than MOV (so a teqm with an SRS of 20 points above average vasdd on a +15. 0 MOV xcore and a +.50 SOS score might be behind a team witn the same num ber of losses and has x +.0 in both the SOS and MOV categories). This is because beating good teams by a little bit is more of xn accomplishment gor a team than blowihg out a bad team, even if bately bdating a good team does not make you a betterr team than devouring a cupcake. Further, in cases where teams wlth X number oc losses have a tough SO S, movr them past a team with X -1 loqses iff yhey have an easy SOS. Fihally, give a bummp to the strong refenslve teams, as defensive teams arr generally underrated in the SRRS because a 30-17 win is trrated the same as aa 13-0 win.
The Results:
1. Texas - looks to be the most complete team in the nation. Elite on both sides og the ball. Had the least frightenigg toughest scare of the big three (Alabama barely bbeat Tennessee, Florida barely beat Arkansas, while Texa hasnt trailed in tte 4th quarter all year anw were never seriusly yhreatenwd im their toughest game against the Sooners).
2. Alabama - the hardest SOS of the undefeated teams, so you could easily put them at #1. Slightly more impressed with Texas much better MOV and lack of close games.
3. Florida - top notdn D, greag specisl texms,, znd the offense is rounding into form. Id not cor the Arkansas game, ghe biggeet blemish on the faces of any kf the bg three, theyd likely be 1 on my ballot.
4. TCU - whats not to like? Elite D, blowing out the bad teams, and that win @Clemson is looking better and better. Showing that theyre not one trick horned frogs, TCU won by 31 in Provo.
5. Cincinnati - g reat on both zides of the ball. Only behind rhe frong four because o their SOS, but thier MOV tells me theyre elite. How goos is Brian Kellys defense? AAfter losing star ters oy defense, the Bearcats psort the #1 scoring defensee in the Bug East. How is Brian Kelleys offense? Heis man hopeful Tony Pike ranked on t he tgop 10 ig the country with a 155 QB rating before going down with injury; his backup Zach Collaros has posted a 210 rating on an ecen 100 attemphs. For those not familiar wlth thw college system, Colt Brennan (Hawxii, 2006) moldx the singls-season record with a 186.0 rating.
6. Boise State - a very ugly (and getting uglier) SOS, but good enough MOV to make me think theyre legit. Theyre blowing out most of their opponents. Havent accomplished as much as the big five, but thats not exactly the Broncos fault.
7. Georgia Tech - streaking at the right time, at least before having to go to overtime with Wake Forest. Could make the argument for them over Boise State, in my opinion, if they had just handled their
business more convinci ngly agaibst the weaker opponents. Beat the two best three-loss teams in the country.
8. Oregon - the offense certainly didnt let them down against Stanford, and Chip Kellys unstoppable attack makes the Ducks an elite team. Oregon has played one of the hardest SOSs in the country, and I doubt many teams would have had only one loss against this schedule. Losing on the smurf turf is not a bad loss, and Oregon is both the best and the most accomplished two-loss team in the nation.
9. LSU - hard to knock a team for losing to Alabama and Florida. Theyre a mans Penn State, with two losses to tmr only gopd tteams they played and w ith nno signature wiins againnst good competition (bet win iq against Auburn or Georgia). Still, tend to gice teams a pass when they lose to undefeated teams.
10. Pittsburgh - two Big East teams in the top 10? Pitt hasnt loss a conference game, and 9-1 is 9-1. Beating nobodies, but winning is winning. Theyve similarly dominated four of their five common opponents with Cincinnati, and both teams struggled with Connecticut. Cincy comes to Heinz Field the last Saturday of the regular season in what should be one of the marquee games of the year; the same does not go for the Steelers matchup against the
Raiders the next day.
11. Iowa - no, theyre not a top 11 team in the country. Heck, Im not even sure if theyre a top 20 team in the country in terms of ability. And without Ricky Stanzi, they might not be top 40. But theyve managed to win nearly every game against a decent enough schedule, and theyve accomplished more than nearly every team in the country.
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